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Arctic Soil Governs Whether Climate Change Drives Global Losses or Gains in Soil Carbon
Author(s) -
Wieder William R.,
Sulman Benjamin N.,
Hartman Melannie D.,
Koven Charles D.,
Bradford Mark A.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl085543
Subject(s) - permafrost , soil carbon , environmental science , carbon cycle , climate change , greenhouse gas , global warming , biogeochemical cycle , arctic , global change , carbon fibers , climatology , atmospheric sciences , ecosystem , soil water , soil science , ecology , geology , materials science , biology , composite number , composite material
Abstract Key uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections revolve around the timing, direction, and magnitude of the carbon cycle feedback to climate change. This is especially true in carbon‐rich Arctic ecosystems, where permafrost soils contain roughly one third of the world's soil carbon stocks, which are likely vulnerable to loss. Using an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models that reflect recent changes in the conceptual understanding of factors responsible for soil carbon persistence, we quantify potential soil carbon responses under two representative climate change scenarios. Our results illustrate that models disagree on the sign and magnitude of global soil changes through 2100, with disagreements primarily driven by divergent responses of Arctic systems. These results largely reflect different assumptions about the nature of soil carbon persistence and vulnerabilities, underscoring the challenges associated with setting allowable greenhouse gas emission targets that will limit global warming to 1.5°C.