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Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice‐Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations
Author(s) -
Liang YuChiao,
Kwon YoungOh,
Frankignoul Claude,
Danabasoglu Gokhan,
Yeager Stephen,
Cherchi Annalisa,
Gao Yongqi,
Gastineau Guillaume,
Ghosh Rohit,
Matei Daniela,
Mecking Jennifer V.,
Peano Daniele,
Suo Lingling,
Tian Tian
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl085397
Subject(s) - arctic , climatology , environmental science , arctic ice pack , sea ice , atmospheric circulation , atmospheric sciences , atmosphere (unit) , the arctic , arctic sea ice decline , general circulation model , climate model , sea surface temperature , climate change , geology , meteorology , oceanography , drift ice , geography
A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere‐only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice‐driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979–2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is ~0.18 hPa 2 for Arctic‐averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and ~0.35 K 2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75–1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic.