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Predictability Horizons in the Global Carbon Cycle Inferred From a Perfect‐Model Framework
Author(s) -
Spring Aaron,
Ilyina Tatiana
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl085311
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , carbon cycle , flux (metallurgy) , atmospheric carbon cycle , climate model , sink (geography) , carbon sink , atmospheric model , carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere , atmospheric research , middle latitudes , climate change , geology , oceanography , geography , chemistry , physics , ecosystem , ecology , cartography , quantum mechanics , biology , organic chemistry
On interannual timescales the growth rate of atmospheric CO 2 is largely controlled by the response of the land and ocean carbon sinks to climate variability. Yet, it is unknown to what extent this variability limits the predictability of atmospheric CO 2 variations. Using perfect‐model Earth System Model simulations, we show that variations in atmospheric CO 2 are potentially predictable for 3 years. We find a 2‐year predictability horizon for global oceanic CO 2 flux with longer regional predictability of up to 7 years. The 2‐year predictability horizon of terrestrial CO 2 flux originates in the tropics and midlatitudes. With the predictability of the isolated effects of land and ocean carbon sink on atmospheric CO 2 of 5 and 12 years respectively, land dampens the overall predictability of atmospheric CO 2 variations. Our research shows the potential of Earth System Model‐based predictions to forecast multiyear variations in atmospheric CO 2 .
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