Premium
Groundwater Buffers Decreasing Glacier Melt in an Andean Watershed—But Not Forever
Author(s) -
Somers Lauren D.,
McKenzie Jeffrey M.,
Mark Bryan G.,
Lagos Pablo,
Ng GeneHua Crystal,
Wickert Andrew D.,
Yarleque Christian,
Baraër Michel,
Silva Yamina
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl084730
Subject(s) - groundwater recharge , glacier , groundwater , meltwater , evapotranspiration , hydrology (agriculture) , climate change , geology , streamflow , environmental science , depression focused recharge , watershed , surface water , water resources , aquifer , geomorphology , oceanography , geography , drainage basin , ecology , geotechnical engineering , cartography , machine learning , environmental engineering , computer science , biology
Abstract Accelerating mountain glacier recession in a warming climate threatens the sustainability of mountain water resources. The extent to which groundwater will provide resilience to these water resources is unknown, in part due to a lack of data and poorly understood interactions between groundwater and surface water. Here we address this knowledge gap by linking climate, glaciers, surface water, and groundwater into an integrated model of the Shullcas Watershed, Peru, in the tropical Andes, the region experiencing the most rapid mountain‐glacier retreat on Earth. For a range of climate scenarios, our model projects that glaciers will disappear by 2100. The loss of glacial meltwater will be buffered by relatively consistent groundwater discharge, which only receives minor recharge (~2%) from glacier melt. However, increasing temperature and associated evapotranspiration, alongside potential decreases in precipitation, will decrease groundwater recharge and streamflow, particularly for the RCP 8.5 emission scenario.