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Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Timescales
Author(s) -
Lutsko Nicholas J.,
Popp Max
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl084018
Subject(s) - radiative forcing , environmental science , forcing (mathematics) , climate sensitivity , climatology , global warming , transient (computer programming) , climate change , atmospheric sciences , uncertainty analysis , transient climate simulation , climate model , radiative transfer , physics , ecology , mathematics , geology , computer science , statistics , quantum mechanics , biology , operating system
The rate of transient warming is determined by a number of factors, notably the radiative forcing from increasing CO 2 concentrations and the net radiative feedback. Uncertainty in transient warming comes from both the uncertainty in each factor and from the warming's sensitivity to uncertainty in each factor. An energy balance model is used to untangle these two components of uncertainty in transient warming, which is shown to be most sensitive to uncertainty in the forcing and not to uncertainty in radiative feedbacks. Additionally, uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake is more important than uncertainty in the rate of ocean heat uptake. Three further implications are as follows: (1) transient warming is highly sensitive to uncertainty in emissions, (2) caution is warranted when extrapolating future warming trends from short‐lived climate perturbations, and (3) climate models tuned using the historical record are highly sensitive to assumptions made about the historical forcing.