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Evaluating Indices of Blocking Anticyclones in Terms of Their Linear Relations With Surface Hot Extremes
Author(s) -
Chan PakWah,
Hassanzadeh Pedram,
Kuang Zhiming
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl083307
Subject(s) - anticyclone , anomaly (physics) , blocking (statistics) , geopotential height , climatology , geopotential , environmental science , geology , meteorology , mathematics , statistics , geography , physics , precipitation , condensed matter physics
Changes in frequencies of blocking anticyclones are sometimes used to explain changes in surface hot extremes. However, there is no consensus on the definition of blocking anticyclones, and several indices have been developed to measure them. Here we linearly regress interannual variations of hemispheric continental summer surface hot extreme area on the corresponding variations of blocking anticyclones in the ERA‐Interim reanalysis data and use cross‐validation test error to measure the blocking‐extreme link. Relative mean square validation error is at least 0.91 (relative to no knowledge of blocking) for existing indices defined on 500‐hPa geopotential height, when summed over land and ocean. This can be reduced to 0.55, largely by excluding blocks over ocean and optimizing parameters/thresholds and partly by using anomaly‐based or anomaly‐reversal hybrid indices. This framework helps to quantify the association of hot extremes and blocks with an uncertainty estimate and can be used for other extremes as well.