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Do Large Earthquakes Occur at Regular Intervals Through Time? A Perspective From the Geologic Record
Author(s) -
Williams Randolph T.,
Davis Joshua R.,
Goodwin Laurel B.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl083291
Subject(s) - intraplate earthquake , geology , seismology , quasiperiodic function , plate tectonics , tectonics , remotely triggered earthquakes , fault (geology) , seismic gap , mathematics , mathematical analysis
We analyzed a catalog of 31 published earthquake chronologies to assess the commonality of quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence across a range of fault types and tectonic settings. The statistical approach we employ differs from previous methods in that it explicitly incorporates numeric uncertainties in the earthquake chronologies while recognizing that random sequences of events (against which the chronologies are tested) may appear to be less disordered over the short time scales typical of most published records. Our results show that 58% of the chronologies support an interpretation of quasiperiodic recurrence (probability of random recurrence < 10%). These include strike‐slip, normal, and reverse faults in both plate‐boundary and intraplate environments, which exhibit evidence for quasiperiodic recurrence with comparable frequency. We conclude that quasiperiodic failure is likely the norm for faults in the seismogenic crust and that stress renewal is a first‐order control on fault rupture across a wide range of tectonic settings.