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A Road Map for Improving the Treatment of Uncertainties in High‐Resolution Regional Carbon Flux Inverse Estimates
Author(s) -
Feng Sha,
Lauvaux Thomas,
Keller Klaus,
Davis Kenneth J.,
Rayner Peter,
Oda Tomohiro,
Gurney Kevin R.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl082987
Subject(s) - environmental science , inflow , sink (geography) , atmospheric sciences , climatology , inversion (geology) , flux (metallurgy) , greenhouse gas , fossil fuel , meteorology , geology , geography , oceanography , paleontology , ecology , materials science , cartography , metallurgy , biology , structural basin
Abstract Atmospheric inversions allow us to estimate the terrestrial carbon sink by combining atmospheric observations with atmospheric transport models. However, these inverse estimates remain highly uncertain. Here we quantify uncertainties in simulations of North American atmospheric CO 2 concentrations using a probabilistic approach. We demonstrate that uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions is a key factor in the uncertainty surrounding biospheric flux estimates. We show that atmospheric transport uncertainties in state‐of‐the‐art numerical weather models diminish when averaged over time, while uncertainties in large‐scale CO 2 boundary inflow considerably impair our ability to quantify regional fluxes. Current estimates of the North America land sink that neglect the uncertainties in CO 2 boundary inflow and fossil fuel emissions are likely overconfident. Our findings suggest that targeted use of new atmospheric observations and improved quantification of uncertainty components are a promising avenue to improve atmospheric inversions with the goal to refine estimates of biospheric CO 2 fluxes on regional and continental scales.