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An Intercomparison of Verification Scores for Evaluating the Sea Ice Edge Position in Seasonal Forecasts
Author(s) -
Palerme Cyril,
Müller Malte,
Melsom Arne
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2019gl082482
Subject(s) - climatology , position (finance) , sea ice , environmental science , hausdorff distance , enhanced data rates for gsm evolution , variation (astronomy) , meteorology , computer science , geology , geography , physics , artificial intelligence , finance , astrophysics , economics
With the improving skill of sea ice forecasts, verification methods are becoming increasingly important to inform model developers and users. In this study, the Modified Hausdorff Distance (MHD), the Spatial Probability Score (SPS), and a variation of the SPS are compared in order to assess their performances for evaluating the ice edge position in the new European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts seasonal forecasts (SEAS5). On average, the SEAS5 forecasts outperform a climatological reference during about 3 weeks using the MHD, and during about 5 weeks using the SPS. Furthermore, our results show that the MHD is more sensitive than the SPS to the presence of isolated sea ice patches. Moreover, the variation of the SPS introduced here is not seasonally dependent (contrary to the original SPS) and can be interpreted as a distance error of the ice edge position, which is a potentially relevant information for end users.