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Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers
Author(s) -
Stjern Camilla Weum,
Lund Marianne Tronstad,
Samset Bjørn Hallvard,
Myhre Gunnar,
Forster Piers M.,
Andrews Timothy,
Boucher Olivier,
Faluvegi Gregory,
Fläschner Dagmar,
Iversen Trond,
Kasoar Matthew,
Kharin Viatcheslav,
Kirkevåg Alf,
Lamarque JeanFrançois,
Olivié Dirk,
Richardson Thomas,
Sand Maria,
Shawki Dilshad,
Shindell Drew,
Smith Christopher J.,
Takemura Toshihiko,
Voulgarakis Apostolos
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2018jd029726
Subject(s) - arctic , climate change , environmental science , precipitation , climatology , greenhouse gas , atmospheric sciences , coupled model intercomparison project , global warming , climate model , climate commitment , the arctic , mean radiant temperature , effects of global warming , meteorology , geography , oceanography , geology
The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO 2 , CH 4 , the solar constant, black carbon, and SO 4 ). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO 4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO 4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO 2 .