Sensitivity of the Amazonian Convective Diurnal Cycle to Its Environment in Observations and Reanalysis

Atmospheric model parameterizations of tropical deep convection struggle to reproduce the observed diurnal variability of convection in the Amazon leading to climatological biases in the energy budget and water cycle. To identify the physical process contributions to these biases, we analyze the relationships between the convective diurnal cycle and atmosphere state variables relevant to convection in the Amazon using satellite observations and reanalysis data sets for wet and dry seasons between 2002 and 2016 and two Green Ocean Amazon periods. The analysis first stratifies the diurnal cycle into convective and nonconvective days using a daily maximum rain rate threshold of 0.5 mm/hr. Second, the population of days is constrained by requiring reanalysis and observations to agree on the occurrence of convective rain rates, controlling for frequency‐dependent biases in convection. The model‐generated precipitation phase in Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications‐2 is closer to observations than ERA during 2002–2016, which exhibits a systematic noontime bias and exaggerated diurnal amplitude. Despite the systematic noontime precipitation bias, ERA produces better agreement with Green Ocean Amazon observations due to the frequent midmorning arrival of the coastal front acting to shift the observed diurnal cycle closer to noon. Model disagreement between middle‐tropospheric vertical velocity is largest overnight during the dissipation stage of convection, acting to sustain biases through radiative effects. Specifically, the slower dissipation of convection in Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications‐2 acts to reduce morning surface fluxes and increase convective inhibition, whereas enhanced nocturnal midtropospheric subsidence and higher boundary layer humidity in ERA reduce morning convective inhibition leading to an earlier initiation of afternoon deep convection.