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The Stratospheric Sudden Warming Event in February 2018 and its Prediction by a Climate System Model
Author(s) -
Rao Jian,
Ren Rongcai,
Chen Haishan,
Yu Yueyue,
Zhou Yang
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2018jd028908
Subject(s) - stratosphere , extratropical cyclone , climatology , polar vortex , environmental science , hindcast , atmospheric sciences , troposphere , westerlies , trough (economics) , meteorology , geology , geography , economics , macroeconomics
A major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) event was observed in February 2018 after a 4‐year absence since the winter of 2013/2014. Based on the reanalysis data, the polar night jet changed from a very strong state to a moderate state during 12–19 January, and the moderate westerlies directly reversed to easterlies during 5–15 February. The intensified East Asian trough, Alaskan blocking, and East U.S. trough amplified the extratropical climatological wave 2, which propagated upward into the stratosphere, leading to a vortex‐splitting SSW event. Predictions of the February 2018 SSW event are explored in hindcasts initialized 0–4 weeks in advance by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model. Less than 20% of the 28 ensemble members predict the reversal of [ U ] 60°N, 10hPa in hindcasts initialized 3 or 4 weeks in advance if a 5‐day error is allowed, while this ratio increases to 43% in hindcasts initialized 1 week in advance. Based on the climatological occurrence of SSW events in the forecast system, the maximum deterministic predictable limit of this event is 1–2 weeks in this forecast system. The eddy heat flux and its domination by wave 2 can only be predicted within the predictable time limit. A comparison between hindcast members initialized 2 weeks in advance suggests that the extratropical troughs and blockings are responsible for the upward propagation of waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere. The predictable limit of the stratospheric circulation pattern for the February 2018 SSW, 1–2 weeks, also generalizes to other vortex split SSW events such as the January 2009 and February 1999 cases.