Premium
Late Quaternary Eruption Record and Probability of Future Volcanic Eruptions in the Long Valley Volcanic Region (CA, USA)
Author(s) -
Bevilacqua Andrea,
Bursik Marcus,
Patra Abani,
Bruce Pitman E.,
Yang Qingyuan,
Sangani Radhika,
KobsNawotniak Shan
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: solid earth
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.983
H-Index - 232
eISSN - 2169-9356
pISSN - 2169-9313
DOI - 10.1029/2018jb015644
Subject(s) - volcano , volcanic hazards , geology , explosive eruption , lava , radiometric dating , vulcanian eruption , dome (geology) , seismology , quaternary , hazard analysis , physical geography , magma , paleontology , geography , aerospace engineering , engineering
The Long Valley volcanic region, eastern California, has been characterized by recurrent and generally explosive eruptions in the past 180,000 years, originating from a N/S elongated area ~50 km in extent, including the Mammoth Mountain lava dome complex, the Mono‐Inyo volcanic chain, and their peripheries. Several temporal clusters of activity have been observed in a relatively well‐preserved time‐stratigraphic record, which is nevertheless affected by uncertainties. This study has two main objectives: (1) to fully describe the past eruption record by using a stochastic model capable of combining radiometric ages and stratigraphic constraints and, (2) based on the uncertainty assessment, to develop a doubly stochastic, long‐term temporal model based on the current situation. Multiple approaches are described and compared, and multimodel forecasts are also presented. Our findings provide fundamental information for hazard assessment and forecasting of the next eruption in the Long Valley volcanic region, of which the mean probability of occurrence is estimated to be ~2.5% in the next 10 years and ~22.5% in the next 100 years.