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Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations of Moisture Triggering Primary MJO Initiation
Author(s) -
Wei Yuntao,
Mu Mu,
Ren HongLi,
Fu JoshuaXiouhua
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl081755
Subject(s) - madden–julian oscillation , climatology , equator , initialization , nonlinear system , perturbation (astronomy) , environmental science , troposphere , oscillation (cell signaling) , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , computer science , convection , physics , latitude , chemistry , geodesy , quantum mechanics , programming language , biochemistry
The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant intraseasonal variability originating in the tropics and influencing global weather and climate. Despite this dominance, we still lack reliable precursor signals triggering nonlinear initiation of primary MJO events. Here for the first time, we deal with this question from the point of view of nonlinearity, with successful implementation of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). Our results show that relative to random perturbations, CNOPs of moisture have the most potential to trigger the strongest primary MJO events more than 15–20 days in advance from the given non‐MJO reference states. The CNOPs manifest as a moist equator and aggregate in the lower troposphere, with stronger signals over the western Indian Ocean than over the eastern one. These CNOPs can also capture the observational moist precursor conditions of primary MJO events. This work also implies the necessity of utilizing nonlinear optimal moist initialization in subseasonal predictions.