Premium
Natural Climate Oscillations may Counteract Red Sea Warming Over the Coming Decades
Author(s) -
Krokos George,
Papadopoulos Vassilis P.,
Sofianos Sarantis S.,
Ombao Hernando,
Dybczak Patryk,
Hoteit Ibrahim
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl081397
Subject(s) - climatology , global warming , sea surface temperature , environmental science , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , climate system , pacific decadal oscillation , climate change , ecosystem , effects of global warming on oceans , natural (archaeology) , oceanography , geology , ecology , biology , paleontology
Recent reports of warming trends in the Red Sea raise concerns about the response of the basin's fragile ecosystem under an increasingly warming climate. Using a variety of available Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data sets, we investigate the evolution of Red Sea SST in relation to natural climate variability. Analysis of long‐term SST data sets reveals a sequence of alternating positive and negative trends, with similar amplitudes and a periodicity of nearly 70 years associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. High warming rates reported recently appear to be a combined effect of global warming and a positive phase of natural SST oscillations. Over the next decades, the SST trend in the Red Sea purely related to global warming is expected to be counteracted by the cooling Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase. Regardless of the current positive trends, projections incorporating long‐term natural oscillations suggest a possible decreasing effect on SST in the near future.