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Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble
Author(s) -
Karpechko Alexey Yu.,
CharltonPerez Andrew,
Balmaseda Magdalena,
Tyrrell Nicholas,
Vitart Frederic
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl081091
Subject(s) - predictability , anomaly (physics) , climatology , environmental science , forecast skill , troposphere , ensemble forecasting , climate model , atmospheric sciences , magnitude (astronomy) , ensemble average , meteorology , climate change , geology , geography , physics , mathematics , statistics , oceanography , condensed matter physics , astronomy
Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question. Here we report on the prediction of the SSW on 12 February 2018, its dynamical precursors, and surface climate impacts by an ensemble of dynamical forecast models. The ensemble forecast from 1 February predicted 3 times increased odds of an SSW compared to climatology, although the lead time for SSW prediction varied among individual models. Errors in the forecast location of a Ural high and underestimated magnitude of upward wave activity flux reduced SSW forecast skill. Although the SSW's downward influence was not well forecasted, the observed northern Eurasia cold anomaly following SSW was predicted, albeit with a weaker magnitude, due to persistent tropospheric anomalies. The ensemble forecast from 8 February predicted the SSW, its subsequent downward influence, and a long‐lasting cold anomaly at the surface.