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Late‐July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin
Author(s) -
Yang Jing,
Zhu Tao,
Gao Miaoni,
Lin Hai,
Wang Bin,
Bao Qing
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080963
Subject(s) - geopotential height , climatology , subtropical ridge , predictability , environmental science , subtropics , forecast skill , geopotential , yangtze river , madden–julian oscillation , structural basin , precipitation , china , geology , meteorology , geography , convection , archaeology , paleontology , physics , quantum mechanics , fishery , biology
Dynamical subseasonal forecast skill of summer daily maximum temperature ( T max ) over East China was evaluated based on a 20‐year (1995–2014) subseasonal reforecast data set from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts. A significant late‐July barrier of subseasonal forecast skill was identified for the T max over the Yangtze River Basin, which concurs with a reduction in the prediction skill for the local 500‐hPa geopotential height. This barrier period corresponds to an abrupt transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation when the western North Pacific subtropical high abruptly migrates northward from Yangtze River Basin to northern China. The transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation features the largest day‐to‐day variance in the position of western North Pacific subtropical high, which may cause the drop of the subseasonal forecast skill for both the geopotential height and T max . The results indicate that the atmospheric subseasonal predictability may be strongly affected by the phases of the local climatological intraseasonal variation.