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Contributions of Atmospheric Forcing and Chaotic Ocean Variability to Regional Sea Level Trends Over 1993–2015
Author(s) -
Llovel William,
Penduff Thierry,
Meyssignac Benoit,
Molines JeanMarc,
Terray Laurent,
Bessières Laurent,
Barnier Bernard
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080838
Subject(s) - ocean gyre , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , sea level , ocean heat content , environmental science , altimeter , subtropics , ocean current , oceanography , geology , geography , meteorology , fishery , biology
A global ¼° ocean/sea‐ice 50‐member ensemble simulation is analyzed to disentangle the imprints of the atmospheric forcing and the chaotic ocean variability on regional sea level trends over the satellite altimetry period. We find that the chaotic ocean variability may mask atmospherically forced regional sea level trends over 38% of the global ocean area from 1993 to 2015, and over 47% of this area from 2005 to 2015. These regions are located in the western boundary currents, in the Southern Ocean and in the subtropical gyres. While these results do not question the anthropogenic origin of global mean sea level rise, they give new insights into the intrinsically oceanic versus atmospheric forcing of regional sea level trends and provide new constraints on the measurement time required to attribute regional sea level trends to the atmospheric forcing or to climate change.