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Attribution of Global Soil Moisture Drying to Human Activities: A Quantitative Viewpoint
Author(s) -
Gu Xihui,
Zhang Qiang,
Li Jianfeng,
Singh Vijay P.,
Liu Jianyu,
Sun Peng,
Cheng Changxiu
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080768
Subject(s) - environmental science , data assimilation , forcing (mathematics) , greenhouse gas , water content , coupled model intercomparison project , climate change , climatology , atmospheric sciences , moisture , climate model , meteorology , geography , geology , geotechnical engineering , oceanography
Anthropogenic impacts on widespread global soil moisture (SM) drying in the root zone layer during 1948–2005 were evaluated based on the Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (GLDAS‐2) and global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 using trend analysis and optimal fingerprint methods. Both methods show agreement that natural forcing alone cannot drive significant SM drying. There is a high probability (≥90%) that the anthropogenic climate change signal is detectable in global SM drying. Specifically, anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing can lead to global SM drying by 2.1 × 10 −3 m 3 /m 3 , which is comparable to the drying trend seen in Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (2.4 × 10 −3 m 3 /m 3 ) over the past 58 years. Global SM drying is expected to continue in the future, given continuous greenhouse gas emissions.