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Understanding the Uncertainty in the 21st Century Dynamic Sea Level Projections: The Role of the AMOC
Author(s) -
Chen Changlin,
Liu Wei,
Wang Guihua
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080676
Subject(s) - climatology , climate change , digital subscriber line , subtropics , geology , environmental science , oceanography , computer science , telecommunications , fishery , biology
Climate models show that the largest uncertainties in the 21st century dynamic sea level (DSL) projections are in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and Southern Oceans. We conduct an intermodel singular value decomposition analysis and find that the DSL uncertainties in these two oceans are both intrinsically connected to the uncertainty in the change of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We further conduct a freshwater hosing experiment to show that the AMOC decline not only accounts for the dipole pattern in the DSL change in the North Atlantic but also remotely induces a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies that helps build a belted pattern of DSL change in the Southern Ocean. Our results suggest that reducing the intermodel spread in the change of the AMOC can greatly improve the consistency of DSL projection among models not only in individual basins but over the global ocean.