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How Do Tropical, Northern Hemispheric, and Southern Hemispheric Volcanic Eruptions Affect ENSO Under Different Initial Ocean Conditions?
Author(s) -
Liu Fei,
Xing Chen,
Sun Liying,
Wang Bin,
Chen Deliang,
Liu Jian
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080315
Subject(s) - volcano , el niño southern oscillation , climatology , geology , vulcanian eruption , southern oscillation , proxy (statistics) , geochemistry , machine learning , computer science
Current understanding of volcanic effects on El Niño–Southern Oscillation in terms of eruption type and initial ocean condition (IOC) remains elusive. We use last‐millennium proxy reconstructions to show how volcanic impacts depend on eruption type and IOC. When the IOC is not a strong El Niño, it is likely that an El Niño will mature in the second winter following 79% ( p < 0.01) of Northern Hemispheric eruptions and in the first winter following 81% ( p < 0.01) of tropical and 69% of Southern Hemispheric eruptions. For a strong El Niño‐IOC, no significant El Niño will occur in the first winter after any type of eruption. The eruptions need to be large enough to cause these diverse effects. Our last‐millennium simulation confirms the IOC effect, except that a La Niña occurs in the first winter following most tropical eruptions due to overestimated volcanic cooling in the model.