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Decadal Variation in IOD Predictability During 1881–2016
Author(s) -
Song Xunshu,
Tang Youmin,
Chen Dake
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl080221
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , indian ocean dipole , el niño southern oscillation , hindcast , boreal , variation (astronomy) , environmental science , geology , mathematics , statistics , physics , paleontology , astrophysics
In this study, a long‐term retrospective hindcast experiment is performed for the period from 1881 to 2016 with respect to tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans using a newly developed tropical intermediate coupled model. We focus on the predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, especially its decadal variation. There is a considerable decadal variation in IOD predictability, with high skill after the 1980s and low skill in 1940–1960. This decadal variation is significant when the prediction target is observed in the boreal autumn and winter months. Further diagnostic analysis revealed that this decadal variation was primarily due to the decadal variation in the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐IOD relation that characterized the ENSO‐induced precursor processes, strengthening the predictable IOD signal. Unlike the ENSO predictability that is substantially related to the ENSO signal, the IOD predictability is related to the ENSO‐induced signal rather than the total IOD signal.