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Tropical Decadal Variability and the Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Decrease
Author(s) -
Meehl Gerald A.,
Chung Christine T. Y.,
Arblaster Julie M.,
Holland Marika M.,
Bitz Cecilia M.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl079989
Subject(s) - climatology , teleconnection , anomaly (physics) , environmental science , arctic ice pack , arctic oscillation , sea surface temperature , sea ice , pacific decadal oscillation , arctic sea ice decline , arctic , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , geology , el niño southern oscillation , drift ice , northern hemisphere , physics , condensed matter physics
Abstract The trend for cold‐season (November‐December‐January‐February, NDJF) decreases in Arctic sea ice extent from 2000 to 2014 was about a factor of two larger than the 1979–2000 trend, and the warm‐season (June‐July‐August‐September, JJAS) trend was about a factor of three larger. Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric model show that a negative convective heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific, associated with the negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase after 2000, produces an atmospheric teleconnection pattern over the Arctic comparable to the observations in NDJF but not JJAS. A positive convective heating anomaly over the tropical Atlantic, associated with warming sea surface temperatures there in the 2000–2014 period, produces a teleconnection pattern over the Arctic comparable to the observations in JJAS but not NDJF. Thus, the observed anomalously strong Arctic surface winds and sea ice drifts after 2000, which produced accelerated decreases in sea ice extent, likely had contributions from decadal‐time scale variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic.