Premium
The Changing Seasonality of Extreme Daily Precipitation
Author(s) -
Marelle Louis,
Myhre Gunnar,
Hodnebrog Øivind,
Sillmann Jana,
Samset Bjørn Hallvard
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl079567
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , seasonality , precipitation , downscaling , environmental science , homogeneous , climate change , climate model , global warming , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , ecology , mathematics , combinatorics , biology
Abstract Global warming is known to substantially increase extreme daily precipitation, but there has been little focus on changes to the seasonal timing of these extreme events. We investigate this question using global and regional climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment, in 1871–1900, 1976–2005, and 2071–2100 for an extreme future emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, 8.5 W/m 2 ). Models reproduce the observed seasonal timing and indicate very little seasonality changes during the past hundred years. However, by the end of the 21st century, extreme precipitation could substantially shift later in the year, in most regions from summer and early fall toward fall and winter. This projected shift is not regionally homogeneous, and, among analyzed regions, is strongest in Northern Europe and Northeastern America (+12 and +17 days, respectively), although local changes of more than a month are also possible.