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Increased Occurrence of Record‐Wet and Record‐Dry Months Reflect Changes in Mean Rainfall
Author(s) -
Lehmann J.,
Mempel F.,
Coumou D.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl079439
Subject(s) - climatology , tropics , climate change , environmental science , latitude , tropical climate , period (music) , dry climate , paleoclimatology , annual cycle , physical geography , geography , geology , oceanography , ecology , physics , geodesy , archaeology , acoustics , biology
Climate change alters the hydrological cycle, which is expected to increase the risk of heavy rainfall events and prolonged droughts. Sparse rainfall data, however, have made it difficult to answer the question of whether robust changes can already be seen in the short observational time period. Here we use a comprehensive statistical tool to quantify changes in record‐breaking wet and dry months. The global‐mean number of record‐wet months has significantly increased over the recent decades and is now nearly 20% higher than would be expected in a stationary climate with no long‐term trends. This signal primarily comes from pronounced changes in the northern middle to high latitudes where the occurrence of record‐wet months has increased by up to 37% regionally. The tropics have seen opposing trends: More record‐wet months in Southeast Asia in contrast to more record‐dry months in Africa. These changes are broadly consistent with observed trends in mean rainfall.