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Increased Frequency of Extreme Tropical Deep Convection: AIRS Observations and Climate Model Predictions
Author(s) -
Aumann Hartmut H.,
Behrangi Ali,
Wang Yuan
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl079423
Subject(s) - tropopause , climatology , atmospheric infrared sounder , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , sea surface temperature , lapse rate , convection , atmospheric sciences , deep convection , climate model , atmospheric model , atmosphere (unit) , climate sensitivity , climate change , troposphere , meteorology , geology , oceanography , physics
Abstract Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data from the tropical oceans (30°N to 30°S) are used to derive the probability of the process resulting in deep convective clouds (DCCs) as function of the sea surface temperature (SST). For DCC at or below the tropopause the onset temperature of this process shifts at the same rate as the increase in the mean SST. For tropopause overshooting DCC, which are associated with extreme rain events, the shift of the onset temperature is slower, causing their frequency to increase by about 21%/K of warming of the oceans. This sensitivity is not inconsistent with the sensitivity of the increase of extreme deep convective rain in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 model for a warmer SST. The mean of the 36 fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models predicts a 2.7 K warmer tropical SST by the end of this century, resulting in a 60% increases in the frequency of tropopause overshooting DCC.