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Climate‐Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea
Author(s) -
Holt Jason,
Polton Jeff,
Huthnance John,
Wakelin Sarah,
O'Dea Enda,
Harle James,
Yool Andrew,
Artioli Yuri,
Blackford Jerry,
Siddorn John,
Inall Mark
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl078878
Subject(s) - oceanography , ocean gyre , arctic , climate change , thermohaline circulation , environmental science , north atlantic deep water , climatology , stratification (seeds) , north atlantic oscillation , shutdown of thermohaline circulation , geology , fishery , subtropics , seed dormancy , botany , germination , dormancy , biology
We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2–1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 /s) to 0.0–0.6 Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.