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Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum‐Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness
Author(s) -
Aalto J.,
Karjalainen O.,
Hjort J.,
Luoto M.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl078007
Subject(s) - permafrost , arctic , environmental science , climate change , climatology , active layer , current (fluid) , the arctic , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , geography , layer (electronics) , geology , chemistry , oceanography , organic chemistry , thin film transistor
Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance‐blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 10 6 km 2 . This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region‐specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.