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Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic‐European Climate to Global Warming
Author(s) -
Manzini E.,
Karpechko A. Yu.,
Kornblueh L.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2018gl077826
Subject(s) - stratosphere , climatology , troposphere , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , storm track , atmospheric circulation , arctic , global warming , climate change , polar vortex , storm , arctic oscillation , northern hemisphere , geology , oceanography
The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO 2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.