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Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)
Author(s) -
Lawrence Peter J.,
Lawrence David M.,
Hurtt George C.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: biogeosciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8961
pISSN - 2169-8953
DOI - 10.1029/2017jg004348
Subject(s) - environmental science , afforestation , deforestation (computer science) , flux (metallurgy) , greenhouse gas , coupled model intercomparison project , land cover , ecosystem , carbon flux , carbon cycle , land use, land use change and forestry , primary production , land use , representative concentration pathways , atmospheric sciences , climate change , agroforestry , climate model , ecology , geology , materials science , computer science , metallurgy , biology , programming language
Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of −94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing −227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.