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Seasonal and Regional Patterns of Future Temperature Extremes: High‐Resolution Dynamic Downscaling Over a Complex Terrain
Author(s) -
ElSamra R.,
BouZeid E.,
Bangalath H. K.,
Stenchikov G.,
ElFadel M.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1029/2017jd027500
Subject(s) - downscaling , climatology , environmental science , terrain , weather research and forecasting model , orographic lift , climate change , mediterranean climate , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , precipitation , geology , oceanography , cartography , archaeology
The combined impacts of projected/simulated climate change and variability on temperature extremes over a complex topographical terrain along the eastern Mediterranean are assessed in this study. High‐resolution dynamical temperature downscaling is conducted for the past (2008) and the near future (until 2050) during eight extreme hot and dry years under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for the downscaling process with two nested resolutions of 9 and 3 km, forced by the global High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at a resolution of 25 km. Climate indices resultant from daily simulated temperature illustrate considerable changes in daily maximum summer and minimum winter temperature extremes during the future simulated years in comparison with the historic 2008 selected as reference and control period. While average yearly temperatures increase in both scenarios and most regions as expected, the seasonal variability is forecasted to intensify even more significantly resulting in colder winter and warmer summer conditions. Moreover, the interseasonal variability was most pronounced in the years with the highest averaged temperatures. A notable increase in the annual incidence of hot nights and heat wave events relative to 2008 conditions is also expected. The orographic complexity resulted in significant regional differences, with the most affected regions experiencing more than a doubling of extreme indices during the hottest and driest years of near‐future decades. This strong spatial variability highlights the need for high‐resolution downscaling.