Open AccessReconstruction and Future Prediction of the Distribution of Wetlands in China
Author(s) -
Xue Zhenshan,
Zou Yuanchun,
Zhang Zhongsheng,
Lyu Xianguo,
Jiang Ming,
Wu Haitao,
Liu Xiaohui,
Tong Shouzheng
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
earth's future
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.641
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2328-4277
DOI - 10.1029/2017ef000807
Subject(s) - wetland , china , swamp , arid , marsh , climate change , global warming , environmental science , distribution (mathematics) , wetland conservation , salt marsh , ecology , disturbance (geology) , geography , geology , mathematical analysis , mathematics , archaeology , biology , paleontology
Due to lack of historical and accurate data, less well known is how the wetlands of China were changed and affected by human disturbance and climate change during past millennia and also, whether climate warming could impact the surviving wetlands in China. Using niche‐based distribution models and downscaled climate data of the past and future, we projected the potential distribution of wetlands in China. Our results show that more than half of the wetlands in China have been destroyed over the past few millennia. Also, future warming will have a negative effect on remaining wetlands. Freshwater swamp and seasonal salt marsh are predicted to dramatically reduce under future scenarios. Wetlands in high mountain regions and inland arid regions are under threat of degeneration and water salinization. This research could provide valuable information for the future conservation and management of wetlands in China.