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Sobol' sensitivity analysis of the Holocene Peat Model: What drives carbon accumulation in peatlands?
Author(s) -
Quillet Anne,
Garneau Michelle,
Frolking Steve
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: biogeosciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8961
pISSN - 2169-8953
DOI - 10.1029/2012jg002092
Subject(s) - peat , holocene , environmental science , sobol sequence , carbon fibers , carbon cycle , soil science , physical geography , geology , sensitivity (control systems) , ecology , ecosystem , computer science , geography , engineering , oceanography , biology , algorithm , electronic engineering , composite number
Understanding the development of northern peatlands and their carbon accumulation dynamics is crucial in order to confidently integrate northern peatlands into global carbon cycle models. To achieve this, northern peatland models are becoming increasingly complex and now include feedback processes between peat depth, decomposition, hydrology, and vegetation composition and productivity. Here we present results from a global sensitivity analysis performed to assess the behavior and parameter interaction of a peatland simulation model. A series of simulations of the Holocene Peat Model were performed with different parameter combinations in order to assess the role of parameter interactions on the simulated total carbon mass after 5000 years of peatland development. The impact of parameter uncertainty on the simulation results is highlighted, as is the importance of multiple parameter interactions. The model sensitivity indicates that peat physical properties play an important role in peat accumulation; these parameters are poorly constrained by observations and should be a focus of future research. Furthermore, the results show that autogenic processes are able to produce a wide range of peatland development behaviors independently of any external environmental changes.