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Delayed winter warming: A robust decadal response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions?
Author(s) -
Zanchettin Davide,
Timmreck Claudia,
Bothe Oliver,
Lorenz Stephan J.,
Hegerl Gabriele,
Graf HansF.,
Luterbacher Jürg,
Jungclaus Johann H.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl054403
Subject(s) - climatology , volcano , environmental science , climate model , radiative forcing , climate system , forcing (mathematics) , climate state , climate oscillation , atmospheric sciences , pacific decadal oscillation , climate change , abrupt climate change , global warming , geology , sea surface temperature , oceanography , effects of global warming , seismology
Climate simulations suggest that strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) induce decadal dynamical responses in the coupled ocean‐atmosphere system, which protract the climate recovery beyond the short‐lived radiative forcing. Here, for the first time, we diagnose the signature of such responses in European seasonal climate reconstructions over the past 500 years. The signature consists of a decadal‐scale positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation accompanied by winter warming over Europe peaking approximately one decade after a major eruption. The reconstructed delayed winter warming is compatible with formerly suggested mechanisms behind simulated SVE‐driven climate responses, thus corroborating the existence of SVE‐driven decadal climate variability. Historical climate‐state uncertainty may, however, hamper unambiguous statistical and dynamical assessments both for multiple and for individual SVEs.