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Seismicity precursors to large earthquakes unified in a stress accumulation framework
Author(s) -
Mignan Arnaud
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl053946
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , foreshock , seismology , geology , predictability , term (time) , slip (aerodynamics) , earthquake prediction , remotely triggered earthquakes , aftershock , seismic gap , physics , quantum mechanics , thermodynamics
Various seismicity patterns before large earthquakes have been reported in the literature. They include foreshocks (medium‐term acceleration and short‐term activation), quiescence, doughnut patterns and event migration. The existence of these precursory patterns is however debated. Here, we develop an approach based on the concept of stress accumulation to unify and categorize all claimed seismic precursors in a same physical framework. We first extend the Non‐Critical Precursory Accelerating Seismicity Theory (N‐C PAST), which already explains most precursors, to additionally include short‐term activation. Theoretical results are then compared to the time series observed prior to the 2009 M w = 6.3 L'Aquila, Italy, earthquake. We finally show that different precursory paths are possible before large earthquakes, with possible coupling of different patterns or non‐occurrence of any. This is described by a logic tree defined from the combined probabilities of occurrence of the mainshock at a given stress state and of precursory silent slip on the fault. In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake, the observed precursory path is coupling of quiescence and accelerating seismic release, followed by activation. These results provide guidelines for future research on earthquake predictability.