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Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s
Author(s) -
Robson J. I.,
Sutton R. T.,
Smith D. M.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl053370
Subject(s) - ocean gyre , climatology , initialization , thermohaline circulation , shutdown of thermohaline circulation , environmental science , sea surface temperature , oceanography , ocean current , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , global warming , general circulation model , climate change , north atlantic deep water , geology , subtropics , fishery , computer science , biology , programming language
In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.