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California heat waves in the present and future
Author(s) -
Gershunov Alexander,
Guirguis Kristen
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl052979
Subject(s) - heat wave , environmental science , climate change , climatology , gcm transcription factors , daytime , global warming , atmospheric sciences , population , meteorology , geology , geography , general circulation model , oceanography , demography , sociology
Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub‐regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime‐accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub‐regions of California. Part of the intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non‐stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources.