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How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions
Author(s) -
Williams Richard G.,
Goodwin Philip,
Ridgwell Andy,
Woodworth Philip L.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl052771
Subject(s) - environmental science , atmospheric sciences , climatology , effects of global warming on oceans , sea level , global warming , greenhouse gas , climate change , climate sensitivity , steric effects , cumulative effects , climate system , climate model , chemistry , oceanography , geology , ecology , stereochemistry , biology
Surface warming and steric sea level rise over the global ocean nearly linearly increase with cumulative carbon emissions for an atmosphere‐ocean equilibrium, reached many centuries after emissions cease. Surface warming increases with cumulative emissions with a proportionality factor, ln 2), ranging from 0.8 to 1.9 K (1000 PgC) −1 for surface air temperature, depending on the climate sensitivity and the buffered carbon inventory I B . Steric sea level rise similarly increases with cumulative emissions and depends on the climate sensitivity of the bulk ocean, ranging from 0.4 K to 2.7 K; a factor 0.4 ± 0.2 smaller than that for surface temperature based on diagnostics of two Earth System models. The implied steric sea level rise ranges from 0.7 m to 5 m for a cumulative emission of 5000 PgC, approached perhaps 500 years or more after emissions cease.