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Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
Author(s) -
Stroeve Julienne C.,
Kattsov Vladimir,
Barrett Andrew,
Serreze Mark,
Pavlova Tatiana,
Holland Marika,
Meier Walter N.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl052676
Subject(s) - coupled model intercomparison project , climatology , sea ice , environmental science , arctic , arctic ice pack , satellite , climate change , climate model , the arctic , arctic sea ice decline , oceanography , geology , antarctic sea ice , aerospace engineering , engineering
The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice‐free Arctic Ocean will be realized.