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Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing
Author(s) -
Harden Jennifer W.,
Koven Charles D.,
Ping ChienLu,
Hugelius Gustaf,
David McGuire A.,
Camill Phillip,
Jorgenson Torre,
Kuhry Peter,
Michaelson Gary J.,
O'Donnell Jonathan A.,
Schuur Edward A. G.,
Tarnocai Charles,
Johnson Kristopher,
Grosse Guido
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2012gl051958
Subject(s) - permafrost , environmental science , ecosystem , soil carbon , soil horizon , climate change , atmosphere (unit) , hydrology (agriculture) , total organic carbon , carbon fibers , atmospheric sciences , soil science , soil water , geology , environmental chemistry , ecology , oceanography , meteorology , geography , chemistry , composite number , geotechnical engineering , materials science , biology , composite material
Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3 m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems.