Open AccessA probabilistic method of predicting landslides
Author(s) -
Balcerak Ernie
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
eos, transactions american geophysical union
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.316
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 2324-9250
pISSN - 0096-3941
DOI - 10.1029/2012eo500011
Subject(s) - landslide , probabilistic logic , geology , landslide classification , geotechnical engineering , statistics , mathematics
Heavy rainfall events can lead to devastating landslides, but predicting when rainfall will cause a landslide is challenging. Most current landslide prediction methods consider past rainfall events that resulted in landslides, and then use that as input to provide a deterministic rainfall threshold for a landslide to occur. These methods simply predict either a landslide or no landslide for given rainfall conditions. In a new study, Berti et al. developed a probabilistic approach that returns a probability, from 0 to 1, of a landslide occurring for a given rainfall amount. They tested their approach on historical rainfall and landslide data from the Emilia‐Romagna Region of Italy.