Improving forecasts of volcanic ash concentrations

Volcanic ash can severely damage airplanes, and eruptions such as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption may result in major disruption to air travel. Improved forecasting of ash cloud locations and concentrations could benefit the aviation industry and reduce delays, but forecasting is challenging because eruptions and atmospheric transport of volcanic ash are complex processes. The UK Met Office had improved its modeling procedures prior to the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, enabling peak ash concentrations to be estimated during that event. Webster et al. describe the Met Office's method of ash concentration forecasting and how it has evolved from simply predicting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations.