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Smart licensing and environmental flows: Modeling framework and sensitivity testing
Author(s) -
Wilby R. L.,
Fenn C. R.,
Wood P. J.,
Timlett R.,
LeQuesne T.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2011wr011194
Subject(s) - climate change , abstraction , environmental science , surface runoff , flow (mathematics) , sensitivity (control systems) , environmental resource management , computer science , hydrology (agriculture) , engineering , mathematics , geology , ecology , philosophy , oceanography , geometry , geotechnical engineering , epistemology , electronic engineering , biology
Adapting to climate change is just one among many challenges facing river managers. The response will involve balancing the long‐term water demands of society with the changing needs of the environment in sustainable and cost effective ways. This paper describes a modeling framework for evaluating the sensitivity of low river flows to different configurations of abstraction licensing under both historical climate variability and expected climate change. A rainfall‐runoff model is used to quantify trade‐offs among environmental flow (e‐flow) requirements, potential surface and groundwater abstraction volumes, and the frequency of harmful low‐flow conditions. Using the River Itchen in southern England as a case study it is shown that the abstraction volume is more sensitive to uncertainty in the regional climate change projection than to the e‐flow target. It is also found that “smarter” licensing arrangements (involving a mix of hands off flows and “rising block” abstraction rules) could achieve e‐flow targets more frequently than conventional seasonal abstraction limits, with only modest reductions in average annual yield, even under a hotter, drier climate change scenario.