Open AccessForecasting F 10.7 with solar magnetic flux transport modeling
Author(s) -
Henney C. J.,
Toussaint W. A.,
White S. M.,
Arge C. N.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1029/2011sw000748
Subject(s) - magnetogram , space weather , physics , flux (metallurgy) , correlation coefficient , solar irradiance , magnetic field , meteorology , magnetic flux , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , mathematics , statistics , chemistry , organic chemistry , quantum mechanics
A new method is presented here to forecast the solar 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz) radio flux, abbreviated F 10.7 , utilizing advanced predictions of the global solar magnetic field generated by a flux transport model. Using indices derived from the absolute value of the solar magnetic field, we find good correlation between the observed photospheric magnetic activity and the observed F 10.7 values. Comparing magnetogram data observed within 6 hours of the F 10.7 measurements during the years 1993 through 2010, the Spearman correlation coefficient, r s , for an empirical model of F 10.7 is found to be 0.98. In addition, we find little change in the empirical model coefficients and correlations between the first and second 9 year intervals of the 18 year period investigated. By evolving solar magnetic synoptic maps forward 1–7 days, this new method provides a realistic estimation of the Earth‐side solar magnetic field distribution used to forecast F 10.7 . Spearman correlation values of approximately 0.97, 0.95, and 0.93 are found for 1 day, 3 day, and 7 day forecasts, respectively. The method presented here can be expanded to forecast other space weather parameters, e.g., total solar irradiance and extreme ultraviolet flux. In addition, near‐term improvements to the F 10.7 forecasting method, e.g., including far‐side magnetic data with solar magnetic flux transport, are discussed.