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Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters
Author(s) -
Tippett Michael K.,
Sobel Adam H.,
Camargo Suzana J.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2011gl050368
Subject(s) - tornado , predictability , environmental science , climatology , meteorology , index (typography) , range (aeronautics) , poisson regression , atmospheric sciences , geography , statistics , mathematics , geology , population , computer science , world wide web , materials science , demography , sociology , composite material
Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation‐based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year‐to‐year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.