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Using the NARMAX approach to model the evolution of energetic electrons fluxes at geostationary orbit
Author(s) -
Balikhin M. A.,
Boynton R. J.,
Walker S. N.,
Borovsky J. E.,
Billings S. A.,
Wei H. L.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2011gl048980
Subject(s) - geostationary orbit , electron , physics , orbit (dynamics) , geophysics , computational physics , environmental science , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , astronomy , aerospace engineering , satellite , nuclear physics , engineering
Recently published data from Reeves et al. (2011) on the fluxes of 1.8–3.5 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit are subjected to Error Reduction Ratio (ERR) analysis in order to identify the parameters that control variance of these fluxes. ERR shows that it is the solar wind density not the velocity that controls most of the variance of the energetic electrons fluxes. High fluxes are observed under the conditions of low density in absolute majority of cases. Under the condition of fixed density the dependence of fluxes upon the velocity is the following: fluxes increase with the velocity reaching some saturation level. Both the level of saturation and the value of the velocity where it is achieved decrease with the increase of solar wind density.