Premium
Revisiting the Earth's sea‐level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008
Author(s) -
Church John A.,
White Neil J.,
Konikow Leonard F.,
Domingues Catia M.,
Cogley J. Graham,
Rignot Eric,
Gregory Jonathan M.,
van den Broeke Michiel R.,
Monaghan Andrew J.,
Velicogna Isabella
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2011gl048794
Subject(s) - glacier , tide gauge , sea level , environmental science , radiative forcing , future sea level , sea level rise , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , climate change , atmospheric sciences , geology , oceanography , cryosphere , sea ice , geomorphology , ice shelf
We review the sea‐level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea‐level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr −1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr −1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr −1 ) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr −1 ) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr −1 ), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr −1 . The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr −1 ), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr −1 . Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m −2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.