Premium
Multi‐year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean
Author(s) -
Dunstone N. J.,
Smith D. M.,
Eade R.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/2011gl047949
Subject(s) - tropical atlantic , climatology , predictability , ocean gyre , atlantic hurricane , atlantic equatorial mode , tropical cyclone , atlantic multidecadal oscillation , thermohaline circulation , north atlantic oscillation , latitude , oceanography , storm , environmental science , geology , sea surface temperature , subtropics , physics , geodesy , quantum mechanics , fishery , biology
Using idealised model experiments we show that the tropical Atlantic main hurricane development region (MDR) is potentially one of the most predictable regions for atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind shear on multi‐year timescales. Similarly we also find predictability for the number of tropical storms and the position of the inter‐tropical convergence zone. Further experiments that withhold data in different parts of the ocean identify the North Atlantic sub‐polar gyre as the key region for driving the skill in the model MDR. This further highlights the importance of observing the high‐latitude North Atlantic Ocean for initialising future decadal predictions.