Open AccessMechanisms for Predictability of Polar Climate
Author(s) -
Shepherd Theodore G.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
eos, transactions american geophysical union
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.316
H-Index - 86
eISSN - 2324-9250
pISSN - 0096-3941
DOI - 10.1029/2011eo110005
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , environmental science , climate model , climate change , polar , sea ice , context (archaeology) , arctic , global warming , geography , oceanography , geology , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics , astronomy
Workshop on Seasonal to Multi‐Decadal Predictability of Polar Climate; Bergen, Norway, 25–29 October 2010 ; Over the past few decades the two Earth poles have exhibited drastically different behavior. The Arctic has warmed, as expected from the polar amplification of global warming, although the observed rate of summertime sea ice retreat is at the upper limit of climate model predictions. At the same time, Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing, contrary to model predictions. However, natural variability in polar regions is large, with substantial power at multidecadal time scales. All this leads to considerable uncertainty concerning the future evolution of polar climate over the next few decades. To address this issue, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) convened a workshop to assess scientists' current knowledge of the predictability of polar climate and identify physical mechanisms that could be exploited to improve predictive capability. The workshop participants included experts in observations, theory, processes, and modeling, and they looked at both polar regions in the context of their coupling with the global climate system.