Open AccessAn improved forecast system for relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit
Author(s) -
Turner D. L.,
Li X.,
Burin des Roziers E.,
Monk S.
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1029/2010sw000647
Subject(s) - geosynchronous orbit , van allen radiation belt , electron , physics , meteorology , orbit (dynamics) , van allen probes , radiation , acceleration , low earth orbit , computer science , computational physics , satellite , aerospace engineering , plasma , astronomy , nuclear physics , magnetosphere , engineering , classical mechanics
Here we provide a review of existing forecast models for Earth's outer radiation belt electrons, discuss some recent improvements to two of these models, and present a new and improved forecast system for relativistic electrons at GEO. For the first time, we can forecast at a local hour resolution around GEO using a statistical tool included in the system. This forecast system also includes several real‐time forecast models, two previously existing and one that is a new development. This new model incorporates an internal electron source, simulating local acceleration by wave‐particle interactions, and it proves to be the most accurate of the models in the system. For 2007–2008, it achieves +1 and +2 day prediction efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.63. We conclude this work with a discussion of how these models are currently operational and providing results to the community online in real time, and we also speculate on future possibilities to allow for forecasts with extended lead times and ranges throughout the rest of the outer radiation belt.